作者：龙徒北 来源：原创 发布日期：08-23
A | TOKYO -- Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Monday he is preparing to take bold economic measures, including an income tax cut for households hit by inflation and tax breaks for companies to promote investment, in what's seen as a move to lift his dwindling public support.In his speech to start a new Parliamentary session, Kishida said it was time to shift from an economy of low cost, low wages and cost-cutting to one backed by growth led by sustainable wage hikes and active investment.“I'm determined to take unprecedentedly bold measures,” Kishida said, pledging an intensive effort to achieve stronger supply capability in about three years. “I will put more emphasis on the economy than on anything else.”He said he is determined to help people ride out the impact of soaring prices for food, utilities and other costs that have exceeded their salary increases, by implementing income tax cuts. He also pledged to introduce corporate tax incentives to promote wage increases, investment and optimization. Previously, Kishida had been considered reluctant to cut taxes because his government must find the funds to double Japan's defense budget within five years as planned while also trying to counter the impact of Japan’s low birth rate and rapidly declining population.Kishida's pledge on tax breaks has been criticized by opposition leaders as a vote-buying attempt because the proposals surfaced just before two by-elections held on Sunday that were seen as a litmus test for potential snap elections. His Liberal Democratic Party secured a parliamentary seat representing Nagasaki in Sunday's vote but lost in a combined district in Kochi and Tokushima to a candidate backed by the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. “The results clearly show that many voters are dissatisfied by the government's delayed economic measures to tackle rising prices," said Jun Azumi, a senior CDPJ lawmaker. Kishida told reporters that he takes the results seriously and that he will tackle important policies one by one. “Now is the time for me to focus on that, and I'm not thinking about anything else,” Kishida said, denying that his tax cut proposal was related to elections.The tax cuts would be part of a new economic stimulus package he plans to announce by the end of the month. On the diplomatic front, Kishida in his speech reiterated the need to strengthen Japan’s military, given conflicts that are underway elsewhere, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the war between Israel and Gaza's militant Hamas rulers. Kishida also urged China to immediately lift its ban on Japanese seafood imports imposed in August when the tsunami-wrecked Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant started releasing the treated radioactive wastewater into the sea. The government is working to find new markets for the Japanese fishing industry that are less reliant on China, Kishida said.。 最新消息显示，华尔街对“算力贷”相关风险的担忧，正指向定制芯片和先进网络芯片供应商博通。 据悉，一只票面利率5.15%、2031年到期的博通债券，8月以来收益率已上升约14个基点（注：这意味着债券价格下跌）。
B | 与此同时，其5年期信用违约互换（CDS）价格同期上涨了28个基点，升幅甚至高于甲骨文和SpaceX。 上周，博通正与黑石集团和阿波罗全球管理等机构洽谈，计划通过债务融资筹集超过600亿美元的资金，用于为人工智能芯片项目提供资金支持。三家公司今年早些时候曾表示，计划在2028年前支持超过20吉瓦的AI算力部署，所需资金将达到数千亿美元。 美国银行此前测算称，如果博通的AI XPV融资平台按照规划扩大，到2029年其高级债务规模可能达到约3700亿美元。 与英伟达类似，博通为“算力贷”提供部分担保的条件，正是潜在数据中心建设方必须采购博通的芯片。
C | 在这类安排下，博通、英伟达等芯片厂商实际上是把自己的资产负债表信用“借”给客户，帮助客户提升购买芯片和相关设备的能力。
这也引发了有关“信用风险表外累积”的担忧：一旦行业进入下行周期，这类信用支持可能迫使芯片公司在自身盈利承压的时候，仍然需要兑现规模达数十亿美元的担保承诺。 2026年以来，美国AI相关企业债发行规模已达到约2200亿美元，而2025年同期只有约125亿美元。科技债券利差已经扩大到约89个基点，比整个投资级债券市场高约9个基点，显示投资者正在要求更高的新债发行溢价。 摩根大通策略师Tarek Hamid周一在一份报告中谈及博通潜在融资交易时写道：“这进一步加剧了近期市场对于庞大AI生态系统底层不断累积‘幽灵杠杆（phantom leverage）’的担忧。随着租赁合同、采购承诺、残值担保以及其他形式的信用支持不断增加，其总规模最终可能达到数万亿美元。” 不过Impax资管公司的投资级债券组合经理Tony Trzcinka表示：“在我看来，博通CDS的上涨，更多反映的是市场对其自身资产负债表的担忧，而不是对AI投资整体产生了焦虑。” 他补充称，这很可能与市场预期有关。
D | 市场反应隐含了额外的预期，即博通未来还将为更多芯片融资交易提供额外的财务担保。（文章来源：财联社）。
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